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wait if it's not an iterated bet? what if it's just a single bet?

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yeah but if those bets won't all be the same then what a kelly calculator spits out won't necessarily have a very high chance of having a better outcome

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and

your extremely strong claims are only true for a very specific instance (infinite repeated identical bets where you can only have a constant strategy)

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let's say there are 3 bets: 75% coinflip, 51% die roll, 51% wheel spin; all are 1:1 payout. You follow Kelly, I follow "kelly except bet 1% more on the coinflip". What's the sense in which yours "maximizes growth" better than mine?

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but it's not my blanket rule! I'm saying that each bet happens exactly once.

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and

or, sure, my "blanket rule" is "kelly + 1% the first time, then kelly afterwards"

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I never said 100%! I said "1%" higher than Kelly. But sure, let's set this aside, think we'll have to agree to disagree.

9:07 AM · Dec 14, 2020Twitter Web App

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and

Theory is great and all but in the end what matters is reality aka what sits in the bank accounts.

what's your bank account vs SBF?