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SBF
@SBF_FTX
Replying to
@tbr90
please define "Kelly optimizes for total wealth" I disagree for many reasonable definitions of it. For some it's true!
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
Replying to
@tbr90
yeah but if those bets won't all be the same then what a kelly calculator spits out won't necessarily have a very high chance of having a better outcome
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
Replying to
@SBF_FTX
and
@tbr90
your extremely strong claims are only true for a very specific instance (infinite repeated identical bets where you can only have a constant strategy)
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
Replying to
@tbr90
let's say there are 3 bets: 75% coinflip, 51% die roll, 51% wheel spin; all are 1:1 payout. You follow Kelly, I follow "kelly except bet 1% more on the coinflip". What's the sense in which yours "maximizes growth" better than mine?
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Bcdrdi
@Bcdrdi
Replying to
@SBF_FTX
@SBF_Alameda
and
@tbr90
You know what Sam, I think you're better off going away to study the Kelly chapter from a good statistics book, if you want to clear your misconceptions, instead of trolling everyone who knows anything about it on twitter for weeks now. With all due respect.