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SBF
@SBF_FTX
Replying to
@SBF_FTX
18) The thing that convinced us to try it was: Value of FTX = (probability we get customers) * (probability we build a good product) * (value of top exchange)
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
19) And so we wrote down some numbers: 20% * 75% * a lot When we first started FTX, we thought it would probably fail. We did it anyway, because 15% of a lot is… a lot.
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
20) In the end, we got there, because we tried hard, and learned what we could, and put ourselves in the best position we could to succeed. And because 15% isn’t actually all that low.
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
22) Ok, so those are a few anecdotes. But how about more generally? Almost all startups fail. Is it really correct to think big, even if you’re risk neutral?
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
23) And this, really, is the heart of the matter. 15% is a lot different than 0.15%. What can you do to have a 15% chance of success?
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
24) I’ve known a lot of smart people. Many have gone on to do good things with their lives. Some have gone on to do great things. They were bright, sure; but that wasn’t the only thing they shared. They also all made the same choice.
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
25) They all chose upside over certainty. There are a number of people in the crypto community that I respect. But there’s no community I have more respect for than the effective altruism (EA) community.
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
26) And the most impressive parts of the EA community are the ones full of people who chose, very intentionally, to end up there. nytimes.com/2007/12/20/us/ Together they’re discovering big problems; scoping out approaches; and generating hundreds of millions of dollars for them.
nytimes.com
2 Young Hedge-Fund Veterans Stir Up the World of Philanthropy (Published 2007)
Holden Karnofsky and Elie Hassenfeld rank charities by analyzing the numbers in much the same way they did at their investment management company.
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