er sorry about this, that was way too mean
there was no reason for me to phrase it that way
(I get kind of triggered by people misunderstanding Kelly)
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*interested in hearing more about the last sentence 👀
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Heh
This is a classic trap for people who know a decent amount of math, get swayed by a sexy-sounding sentence, and fail to go back and critical examine it.
I think it was maybe the most accurate predictor of whether someone at Jane Street was/would become a good trader.
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Like the best trader is someone who gets everything right.
A pretty good trader is someone who gets half of things right and changes their mind a lot.
A bad trader is one who knows nothing.
But none of those are the worst trader.
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Yes, as it turns out, there is!
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Ha, fair, but 8% annualized return over 24 years is great but not amazing
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yeah I was worried someone was going to call me out on it :P
(I didn't actually look up the returns but Baseball was a lot less monetized then than it is now)
The correct response to this was “compounded annual return doesn’t tell us anything, we need to see the arithmetic mean of annual returns!”
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