uh you were right that it depends on the assumptions you make, sorry about that!
in order for your actualy claim to be right you need to make batshit crazy assumptions
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er sorry about this, that was way too mean
there was no reason for me to phrase it that way
(I get kind of triggered by people misunderstanding Kelly)
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*interested in hearing more about the last sentence 👀
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Heh
This is a classic trap for people who know a decent amount of math, get swayed by a sexy-sounding sentence, and fail to go back and critical examine it.
I think it was maybe the most accurate predictor of whether someone at Jane Street was/would become a good trader.
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Like the best trader is someone who gets everything right.
A pretty good trader is someone who gets half of things right and changes their mind a lot.
A bad trader is one who knows nothing.
But none of those are the worst trader.
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Yes, as it turns out, there is!
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Ha, fair, but 8% annualized return over 24 years is great but not amazing
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sure but can you put a price on this?
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“That's the type of shit they try to pin to me
Tragic situations give me my identity
And beef cut off the fat, that sizzle in grease
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