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uh you were right that it depends on the assumptions you make, sorry about that! in order for your actualy claim to be right you need to make batshit crazy assumptions

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SBF

@SBF_FTX

Dec 3, 2020

Replying to @danrobinson @elliot_olds and 2 others

er ok sorry about that! you might be right. I think the assumptions necessary for yours to hold are: 1) no xfers 2) can't see how the other is doing 3) goes on literally infinitely 4) assets grow unboundedly upwards in the median case

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er sorry about this, that was way too mean there was no reason for me to phrase it that way (I get kind of triggered by people misunderstanding Kelly)

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*interested in hearing more about the last sentence 👀

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Heh This is a classic trap for people who know a decent amount of math, get swayed by a sexy-sounding sentence, and fail to go back and critical examine it. I think it was maybe the most accurate predictor of whether someone at Jane Street was/would become a good trader.

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Like the best trader is someone who gets everything right. A pretty good trader is someone who gets half of things right and changes their mind a lot. A bad trader is one who knows nothing. But none of those are the worst trader.