Nope!
The EV of the arithmetic mean of your annual returns goes up the more you can flip because each flip is positive EV.
Conversation
The tweet you're referring to never says EV, right? It is talking about what you do when you compute the historical average of returns.
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Replying to @SBF_FTX @SBF_Alameda and 3 others
How do I try to learn what some fund's expected returns are? I'll probably at least look at historical returns, right? (NOT
INVESTING
ADVICE)
Suppose there is 50 years of history. I compute historical returns by averaging the actual annual returns, right?
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If you arithmetically average the annual returns, it is extremely likely that 99% company will have a better # than kelly company
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Only if you only flip the coin once a year.
If you flip the coin once a day, then the arithmetic mean returns will almost always be worse, right?
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er sorry actually could you describe the coin that you're saying I'm flipping once per day?
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I might have been making different assumptions than you.
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Thought you were referring to this coin, which you said you would bet 99% on
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yes but what does it mean to "flip that coin once per day"?
I was assuming it was 60% of 99%, 40% of -99% each flip
is it still that, so it's +- 99% per day?
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Or are you saying that rather than being the same coin, it's a different coin you're flipping once per day that produces the +99%/-99% annual returns?

