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A bit of a definitional issue -- the interpretation is mostly wrong; the solution is the correct solution to *a* question but not to *the right question to be asking*

Dan Robinson

@danrobinson

Dec 2, 2020

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@SBF_FTX

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@SBF_Alameda

What makes it the wrong question?

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It's trying to maximize EV[log(money)] instead of EV[money]. This is probably wrong in and of itself as an assumption to make. But if you *do* want to make that assumption, then e.g. you have to consider all of your assets that don't have anything to do with the pool.

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and

Do you disagree with the Kelly criterion in general? en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_cri

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So: 1) it's not literally *wrong* in that it doesn't make a math error 2) I disagree in general that Kelly is the right way for people to bet because I disagree with its assumptions 3) neither 1/2 are necessary for my argument: Kelly only works if you consider *all* your money

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and

What assumptions of kelly do you disagree with?

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and

1) it's way too conservative for many people 2) it contains strong assumptions about infinitely repeated identical bets that you can't have an adaptive strategy with, none of which describe the real world 3) it's scale-invariant in a way that is inconsistent with its sublinearity

1:35 AM · Dec 3, 2020Twitter Web App

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