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A bit of a definitional issue -- the interpretation is mostly wrong; the solution is the correct solution to *a* question but not to *the right question to be asking*

Dan Robinson

@danrobinson

Dec 2, 2020

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@SBF_FTX

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@SBF_Alameda

What makes it the wrong question?

SBF

@SBF_FTX

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@danrobinson

It's trying to maximize EV[log(money)] instead of EV[money]. This is probably wrong in and of itself as an assumption to make. But if you *do* want to make that assumption, then e.g. you have to consider all of your assets that don't have anything to do with the pool.

9:35 PM · Dec 2, 2020Twitter Web App

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and

Happy to moderate if you guys would like to do a long form discussion.

Contagion Means Survive

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and

He’s biased!

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and

Do you disagree with the Kelly criterion in general? en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_cri

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So: 1) it's not literally *wrong* in that it doesn't make a math error 2) I disagree in general that Kelly is the right way for people to bet because I disagree with its assumptions 3) neither 1/2 are necessary for my argument: Kelly only works if you consider *all* your money

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