Conversation

2) NOT EMOTIONAL ADVICE

3) ok sure also not investment advice

4) "They almost did extremely well, but got a bit unlucky and fucked up at the wrong time, so they totally failed." (if success is 75% skill and 25% luck, the tails will be populated with people who got lucky)

5) "My best guess is that you're extremely wrong, but I also think there's a significant chance that you're mostly right. " (not all probability distributions are gaussians)

6) "I really dislike them, but they're a good person; we just happen to have clashing personalities" (this applies to jobs, too)

7) "I think this job is a great opportunity for a lot of people, and it feels like it *should* be for me as well. I can't tell why, but for whatever reason this isn't exciting me, and so I should leave and do something else." (it's hard to do well when you're not excited)

8) "I think this is a really important topic and think that option 1 is massively better than option 2. Also, though, I am missing lots of information and maybe you have some that will make me prefer option 2." (strong opinions, weakly held)

9) "That opinion made sense given the facts at the time, but now it should change." (sometimes it's you, sometimes it's me)

10) "If everyone agrees they're a great company that's bad at marketing, they're probably good at marketing. With bad marketing, most people think the company is bad." (the goal of marketing is to change sentiment on the target, not sentiment on the marketing itself)

11) "Selfishly or for my business, I'd want this law to pass, but I think it's probably net bad for the world." (how should voting work--everyone votes what's best for them and so the law that's good for the most people wins; or everyone tries to guess what's good for the most?)

6:04 PM · Nov 29, 2020Twitter Web App

12) "In the end this comes down to whether the event is 5% to happen or 0.05% to happen." (a factor of 100! not all small numbers are equally small)

Replying to

13) "After a ton of discussion no one has yet poked any holes in this calculation; I think there's a chance it gives the right answer even though it's a shocking one." (shut up and multiply)

14) "Come on, 10% is just implausibly low for something this volatile." (this isn't inconsistent with 13! both admit a significant chance the other is correct)

15) "Oh yeah, nevermind, you're right!" (admitting you were wrong and moving on without drama)

16) "Yeah, it turned out to be X, but it was pretty reasonable for you to have thought it was Y." (letting people move on from being wrong with their dignity intact)

17) "There's smoke, and maybe there's a *little* bit of fire, but mostly it's just smoke, amplified by an echo chamber." (alternative take: they shouldered one of the hardest burdens for the entire industry so others could thrive; those parties recognize this)

18) "Things are shitty between me and them, and I'm honestly not sure whose fault it is." (sometimes it doesn't matter whose fault it is)

19) "Eh idk, my instinct is option 3 but I feel really weakly so feel free to ignore my thoughts." (giving your thoughts without staking more reputation on them than you actually think is accurate)