I try hard not to be dogmatic about these things: what works works, and sometimes that changes.
Going into the election, I think prediction markets > 538/polls.
Post-election, I think 538 > prediction markets.
I think they're good at different things.
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The election was like a month ago and I'm still seeing people beat themselves off over the efficacy of prediction markets over polls.
Gun to my head I can say with absolute certainty prediction markets were embarrassingly awful.
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