FWIW I've def given Nate Silver shit for being overconfident and not updating, but prediction markets aren't perfect either. Sometimes, it's the blind leading the blind.
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What I don't follow here is that the bet is in USD. So on either side of the bet, you have a lost opportunity cost with having put your funds into bitcoin / crypto instead over 4 months. So are the trump / biden percentages also taking into account bitcoin futures?
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Hey Sam, FTX is awesome but there's 1 big problem - why are your BTC MOVE contracts in USD?
I really want to trade the 2021 MOVE contracts but can't coz it'll mean i'll miss out on bitcoin upside.
Change the underlying to BTC and i'm in 👍
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I suppose the answer is the same as why I can't go to Mcdonalds and insist on a 50% reduction in their prices as everything is over valued relative to the effective bitcoin futures premium over the next 12 months.
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I think hurdle rates need to differ across industries and asset classes, due to differing macro risks and flows (regulatory risk, institutional vs retail participation). Even debatable if the bitcoin basis isn’t the right hurdle for crypto (since GBTC arb has higher return).