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FWIW I've def given Nate Silver shit for being overconfident and not updating, but prediction markets aren't perfect either. Sometimes, it's the blind leading the blind.

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hayden.eth

@haydenzadams

Nov 13, 2020

How are prediction market maximalists feeling about these numbers

3:43 AM · Nov 13, 2020Twitter Web App

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aren't you a

mega donor?

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Duh. That's why you go $FTT Long. Use my link for trading discounts. Long $FTT Bro. ftx.com/#a=PopYourFTXC

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15% seems about right to me. Not sure what you're talking about. If you think its off, go capture your edge

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Agree

Trailer Park Supervisor-Elect Warren

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Good risk-adjusted short. I'd do it in size if it weren't for the fact that losing the bet would hurt me doubly.

st4rgard3n.{eth,lens}

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I am curious as to your feelings on allowing this to continue? If it's the blind leading the blind; do you feel some remorse for these people who are inevitably going to be disappointed? Do you think this will affect your exch's usage?

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What I don't follow here is that the bet is in USD. So on either side of the bet, you have a lost opportunity cost with having put your funds into bitcoin / crypto instead over 4 months. So are the trump / biden percentages also taking into account bitcoin futures?