Updates on ftx.com/trade/TRUMP:
1) GA way too close to call, might be for a while
2) NV, AZ still have votes rolling in
3) PA still has votes but they're coming quickly
Trump wins with PA + [2 of GA, NV, AZ]
Biden wins with PA or [2 of GA, NV, AZ]
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for ftx.com/trade/TRUMPFEB, it'll wait to see who's inaugurated in February.
for ftx.com/trade/TRUMP, it depends on whether the race has been conclusively called or not.
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This is how you will loose customers in long run. It is so close call and you cannot let CNN or some media news be determing factor for final decision.
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1) this is always what the contract said and how it was defined
2) it would be unfair to those long BIDEN to change those rules against them
3) it would lock up everyone's capital for months
BUT we are going to be really conservative about this!
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recounts generally change votes by about 0.01%, not 1% -- but I do think there's a decent case for e.g. not calling Wisconsin's vote unless/until a recount is finished because there's an automatic one