1) OK, one final update to TRUMP contracts:
help.ftx.com/hc/en-us/artic
ftx.com/trade/TRUMPFEB has listed!
Conversation
3) The current TRUMP (ftx.com/trade/TRUMP) settles if either:
a) someone reaches 270 electoral votes
b) all of {The New York Times, 538, 270toWin, Fox, CNN} have called the race
In that case, TRUMP --> $0 and BIDEN --> $1, or vice versa.
Otherwise, it expires in 2021.
2
3
4) If you had a TRUMP or BIDEN position settling to $0 (or short settling to $1), you can -- if you want -- pay $0.10 to convert it into a TRUMPFEB.
ftx.com/trade/TRUMPFEB is a future that expires in Feb 2021 to $1 if Trump is president on 2020-02-01, and $0 otherwise.
2
1
2
6) Note that this is already more favorable to long TRUMP positions than the initial rules, which would have already expired it to $0: both it _hasn't_ expired yet, and even if it does you can pay $0.10 to extent until Feb, if you want.
For more info:
2
1
4
7) And, of course, note that ftx.com/trade/TRUMP might very well _not_ expire before February either: it all depends on whether the election is, in fact, called soon, or whether it remains up in the air for a while.
3
5
why not just let the market set the fair trading price until the inauguration, when the president is officially elected? even if biden reaches 270 early-on, the case might be taken to supreme court who might overturn the decision
1
3
Replying to
you could do that -- and ftx.com/trade/TRUMPFEB does!
the downside is it means that everyone's capital is tied up for months.
1
1
Show replies
This Tweet is from a suspended account. Learn more
Show replies