Conversation

SBF
@SBF_FTX
3) As of *now*, Biden is leading in a set of states that add up to 270 EV (including AZ, NV, WI, MI). However, some of those leads are pretty slim, and not totally safe; particularly AZ and NV. So it doesn't seem safe to call the election yet.
1
3
SBF
@SBF_FTX
4) On the other hand: Biden is gaining quickly in PA, and GA looks like a tossup. In order to win, Biden needs one of: a) PA b) NV+AZ c) (NC or GA) + (NV or AZ) He's currently > 50% in PA and NV, ~50/50 in AZ and GA, and < 50% in NC.
1
5
SBF
@SBF_FTX
5) According to the FTX election criteria: a) seems unlikely the networks will call it soon b) borderline about the other criterion: Biden is winning 270EV but within margins of error.
1
3
SBF
@SBF_FTX
6) So rather than expiring Trump to $0 given the current uncertainty, we're going to: a) wait to expire anything to $0 for at least another day b) After that, only fully expire to $0 if uncounted votes couldn't swing the election
1
9