Conversation

2) NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE

3) As of *now*, Biden is leading in a set of states that add up to 270 EV (including AZ, NV, WI, MI). However, some of those leads are pretty slim, and not totally safe; particularly AZ and NV. So it doesn't seem safe to call the election yet.

4) On the other hand: Biden is gaining quickly in PA, and GA looks like a tossup. In order to win, Biden needs one of: a) PA b) NV+AZ c) (NC or GA) + (NV or AZ) He's currently > 50% in PA and NV, ~50/50 in AZ and GA, and < 50% in NC.

5) According to the FTX election criteria: a) seems unlikely the networks will call it soon b) borderline about the other criterion: Biden is winning 270EV but within margins of error.

3:53 AM · Nov 5, 2020Twitter Web App

6) So rather than expiring Trump to $0 given the current uncertainty, we're going to: a) wait to expire anything to $0 for at least another day b) After that, only fully expire to $0 if uncounted votes couldn't swing the election

Replying to

7) If we hit the in-between case in the rest of the week (Biden winning but uncounted votes could swing it): rather than fully expire Trump to 0: wait 3 days, and let people pay $0.10 if they want to keep their Trump until February. Otherwise, it expires to $0.

Trump 2020 and other President 2020 Contracts

8) Note that if the election *wouldn't* be normally callable anyway, we'll let it ride until February, and if it's *totally* callable we'll just expire to $1 and $0. help.ftx.com/hc/en-us/artic for more info.

help.ftx.com

Notes FTX Token (FTT) is not available in the United States or other prohibited jurisdictions. If you are located in, incorporated or otherwise established in, or a resident of the United States ...

This Tweet was deleted by the Tweet author. Learn more