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SBF
@SBF_FTX
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@SBF_FTX
3) As of *now*, Biden is leading in a set of states that add up to 270 EV (including AZ, NV, WI, MI). However, some of those leads are pretty slim, and not totally safe; particularly AZ and NV. So it doesn't seem safe to call the election yet.
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
4) On the other hand: Biden is gaining quickly in PA, and GA looks like a tossup. In order to win, Biden needs one of: a) PA b) NV+AZ c) (NC or GA) + (NV or AZ) He's currently > 50% in PA and NV, ~50/50 in AZ and GA, and < 50% in NC.
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
5) According to the FTX election criteria: a) seems unlikely the networks will call it soon b) borderline about the other criterion: Biden is winning 270EV but within margins of error.
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
6) So rather than expiring Trump to $0 given the current uncertainty, we're going to: a) wait to expire anything to $0 for at least another day b) After that, only fully expire to $0 if uncounted votes couldn't swing the election
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
7) If we hit the in-between case in the rest of the week (Biden winning but uncounted votes could swing it): rather than fully expire Trump to 0: wait 3 days, and let people pay $0.10 if they want to keep their Trump until February. Otherwise, it expires to $0.
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