3) So they were off by about 4% on the tipping point odds.
They said 10% chance Trump won (~outperforms by 5%).
In fact he outperformed by about 4%, which would have had ~15% chance if you assume normal distributions.
So this should be in the ~85th percentile of Trump.
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5) Prediction markets, for instance, had Trump around 35% going into the election.
ftx.com/president2020
If you take 538 and shift it by enough so that Trump is 35% to win, you'd have to shift it by... about 3.5%.
Which is pretty close to how much 538 was off by.
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7) All of which would have been ok, except that didn't say "yeah prediction markets are cool too, idk, ours is just a model, it's unclear what's right".
He said this:
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8) And, now, when presented with a bit of a miss, his response is...
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LOL to all of you who gave 538's model shit for producing really weird maps every now and then.
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It was not terrible though. Nuance needs to be recognized. He shared that. And he in fact ends up being for the most part right in final conclusion.
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not sure about "ends up being for the most part right", I think he was more off than most people were.
And I totally recognized nuance--half my post was saying that it wasn't egregious except that he kept doubling down.
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I hear you on the double down. Felt sort of like he was under siege early when everyone was cashing checks that weren’t signed. So that was his battle back mode to everyone hitting him hard early.
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yeah agreed, except... those people seem like maybe they were always kinda right
I think this is a pretty charitable interpretation. Last night a lot of his responses were to people dunking on him not because they thought the prediction markets had better odds reflected than their model, but that they were accurately predicting a Trump victory.
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TBF people like you and others were actually making this nuanced point, but the vast majority of people were calling it for Trump and trying to dunk on them for that, so I kind of get him taking his victory laps today despite them being off wildly on odds.
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