1) One last note on .
In general, they've done well.
Tonight was not their best moment.
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2) Going into the election, they'd have to be off by 5% nationally for Trump to win: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-
In fact, it looks like Biden will win, as they predicted.
electionbettingodds.com
But it looks like a ~1% swing nationally would make it a dead heat.
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5) Prediction markets, for instance, had Trump around 35% going into the election.
ftx.com/president2020
If you take 538 and shift it by enough so that Trump is 35% to win, you'd have to shift it by... about 3.5%.
Which is pretty close to how much 538 was off by.
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7) All of which would have been ok, except that didn't say "yeah prediction markets are cool too, idk, ours is just a model, it's unclear what's right".
He said this:
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8) And, now, when presented with a bit of a miss, his response is...
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LOL to all of you who gave 538's model shit for producing really weird maps every now and then.
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I think it’s fair to say he’s been overly critical of prediction markets, but I also think it wouldn’t make much sense for him to just tweak his model to make it match market prices. So the markets beat him by being more skeptical of the polls..:
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but it remains to be seen what the right way to bake in that error in the future is
Prediction markets had Biden down to 25% the first night, because they didn't price in the mail-in ballots being bluer.
Idk, sounds like Nate is spot on with the "domain specific knowledge" bit.