1) One last note on .
In general, they've done well.
Tonight was not their best moment.
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2) Going into the election, they'd have to be off by 5% nationally for Trump to win: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-
In fact, it looks like Biden will win, as they predicted.
electionbettingodds.com
But it looks like a ~1% swing nationally would make it a dead heat.
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3) So they were off by about 4% on the tipping point odds.
They said 10% chance Trump won (~outperforms by 5%).
In fact he outperformed by about 4%, which would have had ~15% chance if you assume normal distributions.
So this should be in the ~85th percentile of Trump.
5) Prediction markets, for instance, had Trump around 35% going into the election.
ftx.com/president2020
If you take 538 and shift it by enough so that Trump is 35% to win, you'd have to shift it by... about 3.5%.
Which is pretty close to how much 538 was off by.
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7) All of which would have been ok, except that didn't say "yeah prediction markets are cool too, idk, ours is just a model, it's unclear what's right".
He said this:
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8) And, now, when presented with a bit of a miss, his response is...
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LOL to all of you who gave 538's model shit for producing really weird maps every now and then.
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According to their model, this is a 75th percentile outcome for Trump.
