1) One last note on .
In general, they've done well.
Tonight was not their best moment.
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2) Going into the election, they'd have to be off by 5% nationally for Trump to win: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-
In fact, it looks like Biden will win, as they predicted.
electionbettingodds.com
But it looks like a ~1% swing nationally would make it a dead heat.
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5) Prediction markets, for instance, had Trump around 35% going into the election.
ftx.com/president2020
If you take 538 and shift it by enough so that Trump is 35% to win, you'd have to shift it by... about 3.5%.
Which is pretty close to how much 538 was off by.
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7) All of which would have been ok, except that didn't say "yeah prediction markets are cool too, idk, ours is just a model, it's unclear what's right".
He said this:
Quote Tweet
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8) And, now, when presented with a bit of a miss, his response is...
Quote Tweet
LOL to all of you who gave 538's model shit for producing really weird maps every now and then.
Show this thread
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I think you're confused about the role of vs. the pollsters.
I'd argue that tonight was as good a moment as any. The polls were off by historic margins & the results still ended up in a meaty part of their distribution.
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What you're saying sounds very influenced by your emotions (and that of bettors) during the election, but not actually based on what the data will eventually show. Biden is likely to win with more than 300 EVs or at least around there. That's a miss for Vegas, not 538