Conversation

SBF
@SBF_FTX
3) There is always a chance some results are overturned or at least recounted. *If you ignore that*: Biden wins if he takes Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, and at least one of Pennsylvania and Georgia. There are other paths, too.
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
4) Wisconsin has been called for Biden by many but not all networks, though it will likely have a recount. Arizona and Nevada are inconsistently called but extremely likely to be Biden. No one has called MI, PA, or GA yet.
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
5) We're not there yet, but if any of those three states is called for Biden, that will be that. *If*, that is, nothing is overturned later. There is a significant chance of recounts, state court challenges, and potentially a supreme court challenge. (Of what, exactly?)
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
6) As of now: MI is looking very good for Biden. There are a number of uncounted ballots, but mostly from blue areas. But there's still uncertainty there. PA has a lot left to count and looks close. GA is weird: much of Atlanta hasn't been counted yet. It's close.
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
7) MI and GA both say they'll mostly finish counting in the next day. PA could take longer. But at this point, it looks more likely than not that PA won't be necessary for Biden. If, again, nothing is overturned.
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
8) There will be recounts! But those don't usually do much: twitter.com/ScottWalker/st Bigger court challenges, of course, could do anything, and could drag on.
Quote Tweet
Scott Walker
@ScottWalker
After recount in 2011 race for WI Supreme Court, there was a swing of 300 votes. After recount in 2016 Presidential race in WI, @realDonaldTrump numbers went up by 131. As I said, 20,000 is a high hurdle. #Election2020 twitter.com/ScottWalker/st…
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
9) My best guess is that, in a normal election year: --neither candidate would have conceded yet --Biden would be considering whether to claim victory --Trump would be likely to concede in about a day, once MI and GA votes come in.
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
Replying to
@SBF_FTX
11) Most of the states say they'll finish by 10am HKT (9pm EST) or so. Some (e.g. PA, NV, and NC) will drag on for a few days.
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
23) One last note: if it does end up 270-268, then the possibility of faithless electors becomes real.
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Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth)
@adamscochran
Replying to
@SBF_FTX
and
@SBF_Alameda
Agreed on most of those. I think there is a very good chance that by the time all votes are counted and any cured ballots are settled & certified, we might see Biden break into the 300-307 range. That’s way higher than most optimistic predictions & I’d say it’s a 20% chance now
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
Replying to
@adamscochran
Than optimistic projections pre-election, or now? agreed with now: most people are forgetting that if 4 really close states break his way (as they might), he may end up with ~50 EC votes to spare.
🌳 Druid Andrew 🌳
@andyypants
Replying to
@SBF_FTX
and
@SBF_Alameda
That's why the rules for TRUMPWIN/LOSE should have been a simple binary option of some kind where one of them has to happen for sure. It's not the greatest prediction market when WTF are we predicting is a moving target.
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