Conversation

1) Alright, a summary of the election results so far:

Nov 4, 2020

2) NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. NOT POLITICAL ADVICE

Nov 4, 2020

3) There is always a chance some results are overturned or at least recounted. *If you ignore that*: Biden wins if he takes Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, and at least one of Pennsylvania and Georgia. There are other paths, too.

SBF

@SBF_FTX

4) Wisconsin has been called for Biden by many but not all networks, though it will likely have a recount. Arizona and Nevada are inconsistently called but extremely likely to be Biden. No one has called MI, PA, or GA yet.

8:23 PM · Nov 4, 2020Twitter Web App

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5) We're not there yet, but if any of those three states is called for Biden, that will be that. *If*, that is, nothing is overturned later. There is a significant chance of recounts, state court challenges, and potentially a supreme court challenge. (Of what, exactly?)

SBF

@SBF_FTX

Nov 4, 2020

6) As of now: MI is looking very good for Biden. There are a number of uncounted ballots, but mostly from blue areas. But there's still uncertainty there. PA has a lot left to count and looks close. GA is weird: much of Atlanta hasn't been counted yet. It's close.

SBF

@SBF_FTX

Nov 4, 2020

7) MI and GA both say they'll mostly finish counting in the next day. PA could take longer. But at this point, it looks more likely than not that PA won't be necessary for Biden. If, again, nothing is overturned.

SBF

@SBF_FTX

Nov 4, 2020

8) There will be recounts! But those don't usually do much: twitter.com/ScottWalker/st Bigger court challenges, of course, could do anything, and could drag on.

Quote Tweet

Scott Walker

@ScottWalker

Nov 4, 2020

After recount in 2011 race for WI Supreme Court, there was a swing of 300 votes. After recount in 2016 Presidential race in WI, @realDonaldTrump numbers went up by 131. As I said, 20,000 is a high hurdle. #Election2020 twitter.com/ScottWalker/st…

SBF

@SBF_FTX

Nov 4, 2020

9) My best guess is that, in a normal election year: --neither candidate would have conceded yet --Biden would be considering whether to claim victory --Trump would be likely to concede in about a day, once MI and GA votes come in.

SBF

@SBF_FTX

Nov 4, 2020

10) But this isn't a normal year. And things could still change!

SBF

@SBF_FTX

Nov 4, 2020

11) Most of the states say they'll finish by 10am HKT (9pm EST) or so. Some (e.g. PA, NV, and NC) will drag on for a few days.

SBF

@SBF_FTX

Nov 4, 2020

23) One last note: if it does end up 270-268, then the possibility of faithless electors becomes real.