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22) TRUMP fully recovered the early drop, back up to 38% ftx.com/trade/TRUMP

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23) ok here's a bizarre fact it seems that Florida might be reporting in-person early votes by not mail early votes??? unsure.

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24) A note on FTX TRUMP markets: Poloniex has listed TRUMPWIN and TRUMPLOSE which are tied to them. so some volume is printing off the exchange.

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25) It seems like TRUMP underperforming in non-Florida states maybe, though really depends on what's reporting so far.

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26) a bunch of states closing now

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27) not a ton of new results, but prediction markets are moving around a lot

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28) we've entered the "results slowly trickle in, no huge updates" phase of the night. FTX now above 50% for TRUMP ftx.com/trade/TRUMP

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29) Remember: Georgia returns are weird because Atlanta hasn't really reported yet

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30) about 20m contracts have traded on FTX today between TRUMP, BIDEN, and tokens. ftx.com/president2020

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31) So far today is looking pretty bad for confidence and pretty good for people who used words like "I don't know" and "it might be close" and "this could drag on"

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32) take that, people who were overconfident!

11:07 AM · Nov 4, 2020Twitter Web App

Replying to

33) I'd love someone to create a compendium of tweets expressing confidence that someone would win the election

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I'm not trying to make a point about who _should_ win, just who _is_ winning

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@ChoiceLeverage

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