It’s far too late here for me to have a coherent argument, but I’ll note for a later date that I’ll challenge you on this. I think Silver et al, are still on track and haven’t seen much off. I think it’s a lot of misunderstanding people have of political models vs finance etc.
Conversation
Replying to
I don't think the miss was egregious--but I do think it's likely that 538 will have underestimated Trump here, and that their error bars will end up seeming a bit small here.
1
1
Tbf the only state I think they’ve predicted off was Florida. Other states are tracking right. I think once we get an even distribution of vote types counted this will show it’s a stronger Biden night than ppl thought. So I think their electoral numbers are decent
1
3
Replying to
Yeah that could end up being true, but I'd guess Florida won't be the only one--seems like it's also true of Ohio, Texas, a few senate seats, etc.
1
I think his Senate calls were daft. Agreed.
But, 538 had Ohio, Texas & Iowa as leaning Trump. They went Trump but thinnest margins & best numbers Dems have had there. So I think they called it right.
(+Trump wanting to stop voting & talking about legal action is a telling sign)
1
1
Low not 0. Bought $TRUMPLOSE
I don't see an easy path *without* the courts.
WI leaning Biden, NV & AZ seem fine.
I think GA could very much be a flip.
Trump needs to win GA + PA + MI and ME split district.
Multiple paths for Biden, 1-2 for Trump by skin of teeth
1
2
I think the return multiple of Biden winning is better than the risk he doesn't :P
Once we see one more state of WI, MI or GA finalized, then we have a much more clear picture. Or if AZ fell back to Trump.
Biden winning NE2 split vote changed the odds a fair bit.
1
Replying to
oh yeah think saying odds < 74% is totally reasonable, less sure about ~10%
2
1
Yeah, if I had to ballpark a number (rough gutcheck) I'd comfortably say a 25%
Earlier I would have said larger, because the unexpected result was subsections of the Latino vote showing up for Trump due to his vilification of the word socialism.
That underreported.
2
2