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9) So I think some skepticism was warranted. But on the other hand-- --was there something real that people couldn't quite put their finger on?

10) I'm not totally sure either way. But part of my had similar instincts--instincts I couldn't put into words convincingly, but roughly: "IDK 10% seems way too low. Anything could happen, this is a weird election, volatility is high."

11) And something like-- "We've been here before, and the fact that the media is pro Biden makes me wonder if the consensus is right." Maybe that's all bullshit. Maybe 10% was right, and this was just a lucky night for Trump. Or maybe he'll still lose by a lot.

12) IDK. We'll see. But I definitely wouldn't have been as confident as Silver was about the model. Models are only as good as their inputs. And who knows what the right parameters are here.

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and

It’s far too late here for me to have a coherent argument, but I’ll note for a later date that I’ll challenge you on this. I think Silver et al, are still on track and haven’t seen much off. I think it’s a lot of misunderstanding people have of political models vs finance etc.

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I don't think the miss was egregious--but I do think it's likely that 538 will have underestimated Trump here, and that their error bars will end up seeming a bit small here.

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and

Tbf the only state I think they’ve predicted off was Florida. Other states are tracking right. I think once we get an even distribution of vote types counted this will show it’s a stronger Biden night than ppl thought. So I think their electoral numbers are decent

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Yeah that could end up being true, but I'd guess Florida won't be the only one--seems like it's also true of Ohio, Texas, a few senate seats, etc.

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and

I think his Senate calls were daft. Agreed. But, 538 had Ohio, Texas & Iowa as leaning Trump. They went Trump but thinnest margins & best numbers Dems have had there. So I think they called it right. (+Trump wanting to stop voting & talking about legal action is a telling sign)

7:47 AM · Nov 4, 2020Twitter Web App

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@adamscochran

what do you think the odds Trump wins are now?

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and

Low not 0. Bought $TRUMPLOSE I don't see an easy path *without* the courts. WI leaning Biden, NV & AZ seem fine. I think GA could very much be a flip. Trump needs to win GA + PA + MI and ME split district. Multiple paths for Biden, 1-2 for Trump by skin of teeth