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SBF
@SBF_FTX
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@SBF_FTX
4) After a _lot_ of back and forth, we realized what was going on: People wanted to be able to separate accounting. We had subaccounts for that! But it took an extra 3 clicks to switch subaccounts, and that was annoying. So we put a bar on trading pages to switch.
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
5) This made users happy! They hadn't asked for it--they'd asked for isolated margin within one sub. Because they didn't quite know what they wanted or why. What they knew was that, when they used the current process, they felt frustrated. -----------------
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
7) So what happened? Well, it's.... close. Anyone could win. One point for prediction markets! Do they deserve it? Does Nate Silver deserve a black mark?
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
9) So I think some skepticism was warranted. But on the other hand-- --was there something real that people couldn't quite put their finger on?
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
10) I'm not totally sure either way. But part of my had similar instincts--instincts I couldn't put into words convincingly, but roughly: "IDK 10% seems way too low. Anything could happen, this is a weird election, volatility is high."
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
11) And something like-- "We've been here before, and the fact that the media is pro Biden makes me wonder if the consensus is right." Maybe that's all bullshit. Maybe 10% was right, and this was just a lucky night for Trump. Or maybe he'll still lose by a lot.
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
12) IDK. We'll see. But I definitely wouldn't have been as confident as Silver was about the model. Models are only as good as their inputs. And who knows what the right parameters are here.
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