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SBF
@SBF_FTX
Replying to
@SBF_FTX
2) Each state has a different protocol for assigning its electoral votes to a candidate. If a state assigns all its electoral votes to the person who the plurality of its voters vote for (which is the case for most states), we project that all its electoral votes will go...
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
3) to the person the plurality of its reported voters voted for as of November 4, 2020 (according to all reporting precincts’ most recently reported numbers as of that time). Other states divide their electoral votes pro rata...
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
4) according to fraction of votes each candidate received, and we will project a person will receive a fraction of any such state’s electoral votes in line with the fraction of the state’s votes that person receives, as of November 4, 2020.
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
5) In event that, before all states have released official vote tallies, all of {The New York Times, 538, 270toWin, Fox, CNN} have determined that a set of states electoral votes are projected to go to a specific candidate such that they’ve determined that candidate...
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
6) will receive 270 or more electoral votes, FTX may choose to settle the contract according to that election result. In the event that some set of electoral votes cannot be projected according to the above criteria which leads to the impossibility of determining a candidate...
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
7) who is projected to receive 270 electoral votes by November 5, 2020, this contract will settle to $1 if Donald Trump is still president on February 1st, 2021, and $0 otherwise.
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
8) So, TL;DR: a) if someone clearly wins electoral college, then settle to $1 b) if not, it settles to whoever is president at the start of the next term So likely they'll settle in the next few days, but some chance they stay active for months.
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