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SBF
@SBF_FTX
15) a warning about this: in 2016, Florida seemed to be Clinton outperforming until an hour *after* votes started reporting. The panhandle reported last, and was a Trump outperform.
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
16) REMINDER: it doesn't matter who's up in early votes, it matters who's outperforming vs those particular counties' expectations. different counties report at different times, you have to adjust by which are reporting early.
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
19) Be careful about Georgia results tonight, they may be missing Atlanta:
Quote Tweet
Ben Brasch
@ben_brasch
Officials: We won't have the vote count we expected tonight in Fulton County, home to Atlanta and a tenth of all Georgians. Absentee-by-mail processing at State Farm Arena was delayed 4 hours because a water pipe burst in a room. Officials say no ballots were damaged. @ajc #gapol
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
23) ok here's a bizarre fact it seems that Florida might be reporting in-person early votes by not mail early votes??? unsure.
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
Replying to
@SBF_FTX
25) It seems like TRUMP underperforming in non-Florida states maybe, though really depends on what's reporting so far.
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
31) So far today is looking pretty bad for confidence and pretty good for people who used words like "I don't know" and "it might be close" and "this could drag on"
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
33) I'd love someone to create a compendium of tweets expressing confidence that someone would win the election
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