6) Initial results could be REALLY off this year:
about 100m (!!!) mail-in votes cast.
In some states, those are counted first, in others last.
Mail-in votes are heavily Biden, in-person Trump.
So you could see 66% --> 48% as more votes are counted.
Conversation
8) If you have very strong opinions about who is going to win, you can still trade!
Trump 38%, Biden 62%.
ftx.com/president2020
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14) Trump down on early results, seems like some Florida counties are slightly more Biden leaning than expected.
ftx.com/trade/TRUMP
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16) REMINDER:
it doesn't matter who's up in early votes, it matters who's outperforming vs those particular counties' expectations.
different counties report at different times, you have to adjust by which are reporting early.
Replying to
17) TRUMP settling into roughly 30% here.
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19) Be careful about Georgia results tonight, they may be missing Atlanta:
Quote Tweet
Officials: We won't have the vote count we expected tonight in Fulton County, home to Atlanta and a tenth of all Georgians. Absentee-by-mail processing at State Farm Arena was delayed 4 hours because a water pipe burst in a room. Officials say no ballots were damaged. @ajc #gapol
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24) A note on FTX TRUMP markets:
Poloniex has listed TRUMPWIN and TRUMPLOSE which are tied to them.
so some volume is printing off the exchange.
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28) we've entered the "results slowly trickle in, no huge updates" phase of the night.
FTX now above 50% for TRUMP
ftx.com/trade/TRUMP
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30) about 20m contracts have traded on FTX today between TRUMP, BIDEN, and tokens.
ftx.com/president2020
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