5) Real results will start coming out in about 40 minutes, at 8am HKT = 7pm EST.
Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, and Virginia close.
Of those, only Georgia is projected to be close.
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6) Initial results could be REALLY off this year:
about 100m (!!!) mail-in votes cast.
In some states, those are counted first, in others last.
Mail-in votes are heavily Biden, in-person Trump.
So you could see 66% --> 48% as more votes are counted.
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8) If you have very strong opinions about who is going to win, you can still trade!
Trump 38%, Biden 62%.
ftx.com/president2020
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14) Trump down on early results, seems like some Florida counties are slightly more Biden leaning than expected.
ftx.com/trade/TRUMP
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15) a warning about this: in 2016, Florida seemed to be Clinton outperforming until an hour *after* votes started reporting.
The panhandle reported last, and was a Trump outperform.
19) Be careful about Georgia results tonight, they may be missing Atlanta:
Quote Tweet
Officials: We won't have the vote count we expected tonight in Fulton County, home to Atlanta and a tenth of all Georgians. Absentee-by-mail processing at State Farm Arena was delayed 4 hours because a water pipe burst in a room. Officials say no ballots were damaged. @ajc #gapol
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24) A note on FTX TRUMP markets:
Poloniex has listed TRUMPWIN and TRUMPLOSE which are tied to them.
so some volume is printing off the exchange.
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28) we've entered the "results slowly trickle in, no huge updates" phase of the night.
FTX now above 50% for TRUMP
ftx.com/trade/TRUMP
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30) about 20m contracts have traded on FTX today between TRUMP, BIDEN, and tokens.
ftx.com/president2020
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