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2) NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. NOT POLITICAL ADVICE.

3) Some background:

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1) Today, the United States votes on its next president.

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Election 2020: Live Presidential Race Results

4) Some links: 538 blog: fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2020 Results: bloomberg.com/graphics/2020- Trading: ftx.com/president2020

bloomberg.com

Use our interactive map for real-time election results in the presidential race.

11:24 PM · Nov 3, 2020Twitter Web App

5) Real results will start coming out in about 40 minutes, at 8am HKT = 7pm EST. Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, and Virginia close. Of those, only Georgia is projected to be close.

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6) Initial results could be REALLY off this year: about 100m (!!!) mail-in votes cast. In some states, those are counted first, in others last. Mail-in votes are heavily Biden, in-person Trump. So you could see 66% --> 48% as more votes are counted.

fivethirtyeight.com

Why Pennsylvania’s Vote Count Could Change After Election Night

Graphics by Jasmine Mithani We know a majority of Americans plan to vote by mail or in person before Election Day, and at least 75 million have already cast bal…

7) BTC running up here on ESAs running up (S&P 500 futures). Not sure what's causing the move, but best guess is most things are election related tonight.

8) If you have very strong opinions about who is going to win, you can still trade! Trump 38%, Biden 62%. ftx.com/president2020

9) ftx.com/trade/TRUMP twitter.com/skynetcap/stat

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10) random comment: some of the BTC run-up just now may have been driven by some OKEx futures trades. Blast from the past!

11) ftx.com/trade/TRUMP twitter.com/Sicarious_/sta

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12)

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400k (!!!) TRUMP just traded 35.1% on FTX ftx.com/trade/TRUMP

13) results will start coming out now!

14) Trump down on early results, seems like some Florida counties are slightly more Biden leaning than expected. ftx.com/trade/TRUMP

15) a warning about this: in 2016, Florida seemed to be Clinton outperforming until an hour *after* votes started reporting. The panhandle reported last, and was a Trump outperform.

16) REMINDER: it doesn't matter who's up in early votes, it matters who's outperforming vs those particular counties' expectations. different counties report at different times, you have to adjust by which are reporting early.

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17) TRUMP settling into roughly 30% here.

ftx.com

FTX

18) TRUMP maybe outperforming in Miami

19) Be careful about Georgia results tonight, they may be missing Atlanta:

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Ben Brasch

@ben_brasch

Officials: We won't have the vote count we expected tonight in Fulton County, home to Atlanta and a tenth of all Georgians. Absentee-by-mail processing at State Farm Arena was delayed 4 hours because a water pipe burst in a room. Officials say no ballots were damaged. @ajc #gapol

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20) Florida looking increasingly good for Trump

21) Miami might be missing some or many absentee ballots, unclear

22) TRUMP fully recovered the early drop, back up to 38% ftx.com/trade/TRUMP

23) ok here's a bizarre fact it seems that Florida might be reporting in-person early votes by not mail early votes??? unsure.

Poloniex - The legendary crypto asset exchange

24) A note on FTX TRUMP markets: Poloniex has listed TRUMPWIN and TRUMPLOSE which are tied to them. so some volume is printing off the exchange.

poloniex.com

Buy, sell, and trade Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), TRON (TRX), Tether (USDT), and the best altcoins on the market with the legendary crypto exchange.

25) It seems like TRUMP underperforming in non-Florida states maybe, though really depends on what's reporting so far.

26) a bunch of states closing now

27) not a ton of new results, but prediction markets are moving around a lot

28) we've entered the "results slowly trickle in, no huge updates" phase of the night. FTX now above 50% for TRUMP ftx.com/trade/TRUMP

29) Remember: Georgia returns are weird because Atlanta hasn't really reported yet

30) about 20m contracts have traded on FTX today between TRUMP, BIDEN, and tokens. ftx.com/president2020

31) So far today is looking pretty bad for confidence and pretty good for people who used words like "I don't know" and "it might be close" and "this could drag on"

32) take that, people who were overconfident!