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2) NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. NOT POLITICAL ADVICE.

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3) Right now, prediction markets are around 38% for Trump. This is up from ~33% a week ago. ftx.com/president2020

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4) Polls have Biden ahead by roughly 8% in the national popular vote;

@FiveThirtyEight

has Trump at about 10% to win the electoral college.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

2020 Election Forecast

Latest forecast of the 2020 presidential election between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight

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5) US election results do not all come at once: instead each state, or sometimes district, reports separately. The first significant returns start at 7pm EST = 8am HKT; Georgia is likely to be the closes state reporting then. Results will trickle in over the proceeding 12h.

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6) Some states may take days to call, especially as they work to process mail-in-votes; others will be called the second the first results come in.

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7) This may be one of the ugliest election nights. There is a lot of arguing over votes, ballots, and procedures, and small changes can have large impact. Something that disqualifies 5% of ballots in a single state could well swing the election.

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8) Furthermore, Trump is signaling that he is unlikely to concede the election if it is at all contested, and may claim victory if it's close. There is a real chance that two candidates will claim victory tonight. That would be a shitshow.

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@MikeMcDonald89

Can we bet on both candidates claiming victory? Other thoughts and odds on alternative outcomes?

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@MikeMcDonald89

sort of -- it's a corner case but there's some chance that _multiple_ could settle to 1, though it's really dependent on the order of events.

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@MikeMcDonald89

How will this work on FTX? Whats the final trigger for conversion to either 0 or 1?

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@MikeMcDonald89

Trump 2020 and other President 2020 Contracts

Notes FTX Token (FTT) is not available in the United States or other prohibited jurisdictions. If you are located in, incorporated or otherwise established in, or a resident of the United States ...

11:09 AM · Nov 3, 2020Twitter Web App

Replying to

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@MikeMcDonald89

Okay so as far as I understand this contract will most likely settle on 5th of November, there is a chance it will not resolve until February 2021. In that case it will continue trading until resolution?