Conversation

SBF
@SBF_FTX
5) US election results do not all come at once: instead each state, or sometimes district, reports separately. The first significant returns start at 7pm EST = 8am HKT; Georgia is likely to be the closes state reporting then. Results will trickle in over the proceeding 12h.
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
6) Some states may take days to call, especially as they work to process mail-in-votes; others will be called the second the first results come in.
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
7) This may be one of the ugliest election nights. There is a lot of arguing over votes, ballots, and procedures, and small changes can have large impact. Something that disqualifies 5% of ballots in a single state could well swing the election.
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
8) Furthermore, Trump is signaling that he is unlikely to concede the election if it is at all contested, and may claim victory if it's close. There is a real chance that two candidates will claim victory tonight. That would be a shitshow.
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
9) Prediction markets are running _way_ above models. There are basically three theories here: a) models don't understand how volatile the race is, or are missing Trump voters' enthusiasm b) people are buying way too much Trump on prediction markets c) contested elections
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
10) In particular it's worth noting that in the case of "extra-constitutional" events, what the models are predicting (electoral college vote) might settle differently than prediction markets (who is actually president).
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