There's a big difference between statistical models and prediction markets this US election; and it's a puzzle why this is happening.
Some guesses:
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When people analyze prediction markets, they forget they are only SLIGHTLY less prone to manipulation than statistical models. I hope we will get liquid enough markets by the next election that this will be less of an issue, but as of today, it is not. For better data, look here:
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People who had access to this data correctly predicted the outcome of the election better than the odds (which are determined solely by the total money on each candidate).
This is why I ask of to make public this data as well.
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def can't make customer data public :P
Number of accounts who are net yTrump and number of accounts who are net nTrump. Would this be a problem?
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