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Not 100% sure but my best guess is that the prediction markets are closer than 538 on this one. 538's odds for Trump just seem too low given the volatility and uncertainty of the race.

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Matteo Leibowitz

@teo_leibowitz

Oct 23, 2020

have similarly struggled to reconcile this, assume i'm missing something anyone have answers? twitter.com/ryanberckmans/…

1:40 AM · Oct 24, 2020Twitter Web App

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Did Nate Silver lost all credibility as a forecaster in 2016?

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The answer is they don’t want you to vote so they make u think Biden will win without your vote but in reality trump is a lock. Scary and who knows good or bad. Who knows anymore. Prob bad.

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Id totally buy some trump-perp. He has a 100% chance of winning, easy 2.5x

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Like 2016, like 2020...

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Prediction markets have a time premium, you have the possibility of selling before the event happens, etc 538 is just modeling a 1 off event based on how polls worked in the past. These are just different things, no?