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2) NOT POLITICAL ADVICE. NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.

3) What are the odds Trump is reelected?

4) There are lots of approaches here. You can read polls, as 538 does; they end up at 13%: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-

5) You can look at the economy, as The Economist does, and end at 9%: projects.economist.com/us-2020-foreca

6) Or you can look at what prediction markets say--which have Trump around 33%. electionbettingodds.com [Disclosure: FTX owns electionbettingodds.com; the odds there come in part from FTX's market at ftx.com/trade/TRUMP]

7) This is a reversal from 2016, where "models" had Trump higher than prediction markets. So what's right? I mean, really, who knows. But here are some thoughts.

Replying to

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This isn't a reversal. The only notable model that had better odds for Trump than prediction markets in 2016 was 538s. Prediction markets had Trump at ~18-20%. NYTimes/Upshot had him at 15%, HuffPo had him at 2%, Princeton Election Consortium at less than 1%, just to name a few