17) How much wackier is 2020 than 2016?
IDK -- probably a lot more.
I sort of think that volatility here should be something like 9x the baseline and 3x 2016.
So, idk, I think my model would be a fair bit less certain than 538 etc.'s, in ways that aren't reflected by polling.
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22) Both sides are doubling down, e.g. twitter.com/NateSilver538/
If is right that 's COVID strategy sucks, then Trump very likely loses.
But the public secretly liking it more than they let on is an example of a possible systematic bias.
Quote Tweet
Trump doubling down on a series of extremely unpopular messages about COVID—after having caught COVID, and at a time when COVID cases are rising again nationally—is about the worst possible closing pitch, and one has to wonder about how downballot GOP candidates feel about it.
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As a data science guy, I frequently cringe at election odds reporting.
Most polls reflect the popular vote, and fail to capture turn out, suppression risk, vote friction (who believes strongly enough to stand in line for 3 hours) &
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This may seem a strange question, but in what kind of a democratic system do people have to stand in line for so many hours to vote? I've never queued more than minutes to vote in my country, in multiple locations.
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Is standing for hours to vote the norm in the US? Because that would go a long way to explain the participation numbers, and has an outsized impact on the poorest in society who have less free time
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Depends on the region, county and state.
It's getting worse each year especially in the South and in low-income areas.
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ya it's pretty fucked up
COVID + voter suppression + underfunded election-hosting departments + bureaucracy