yeah markets seem more 'reasonable' here than models.
and anything below 10% seems kinda crazy.
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Models like @TheEconomist's, claiming Biden has a 91% chance, are silly.
Such models fail to consider big unknowns: how many mail-in ballots won't get counted? Shy voters? Systemic state polling problems, like 2016?
These are factors bettors DO consider: ElectionBettingOdds.com
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