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8) It's just true, and unambiguous: crypto loves bulls and hates bears. Because of that, and because I don't want to hurt other projects--I tend not to talk about tokens I think are overpriced. This might have been a mistake: some thought that I thought things would go up.

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9) But the truth is: I don't know if markets will go up or down. I'm just guessing. We all are. And I can't control it: none of us can. I'm just doing the best I can to pick the projects I think have huge potential.

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10) And, to hedge, shorting things with less upside. I'm not bullish on ETH-based DeFi as it exists: it just doesn't scale, and that's fatal. But that doesn't mean future DeFi won't be huge! And maybe even on ETH (2.0).

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11) Anyway: how about when we _do_ invest? Usually, we look for projects with huge upside: --teams we think are great --ideas that are new and important --might actually build it well --price seems too low Sometimes we don't get all (4), and that's OK--sometimes 2-3 is enough.

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12) There's another type too -- great tokenomics but everything else is meh. Sometimes we buy, but with less conviction. But when we _do_ have conviction: we will sometimes fight like hell for the projects we really believe in.

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13) So what happens when things crash? IDK for marginal investments. But for the most exciting ones: we don't panic sell. We buy, from panic sellers. Sometime we buy a lot.

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14) We: --provide liquidity --help with listings --give lots of advice --provide buy-side support --reach out to potential partners --pinch hit when needed And whatever else is useful.

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15) There are some things we can't do: --we can't build for the team --we can't stop people from selling sometimes those happen, even in exciting projects, and things are bad. That sucks. It is what it is.

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16) We also can't control macro: trump got COVID, stimulus was canceled, and DeFi bubble burst. So SRM, and FTT, and others, went down. But we're still there, and when things are good, they go up. Like today.

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17) And we also feel some weak sense of duty towards partners, independent of anything else. One was in a bad position recently. We talked through it, and adjusted our lockup, and did what we could.

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18) Another thing worth mentioning: We try to find partnerships. We look for places where a Serum integration would be mutually beneficial, or other ways to work together. In the end our goal isn't just buy low-sell high. If possible, it's to leave both sides better off.

12:01 PM · Oct 9, 2020Twitter Web App

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19) What are examples? HNT: cool project, huge upside, good partial progress, good price. But -- less certain on tokenomics and community. AVAX: legit chain, has a chance to get huge. SUSHI: high token revenue / market cap, building cool stuff. But, terrible sentiment.

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20) And many more: ALPHA, TOMO, UBXT, CREAM, COMP, LEND, BAL, SXP, SUSHI, BTMX, BNB, HT, OKB, LEO... So should you go buy these? IDK! Maybe not. But why not, if we did? THERE ARE REALLY GOOD REASONS NOT TO.

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21) First, we liked the price *we* bought at. But that might not be the current price! You don't know when we bought. Second, sometimes great projects don't go up. Sushiswap did lots of impressive things, and SUSHI kept going down.

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22) Maybe it's strategic, or maybe it's longer timescale, or maybe it's huge upside/low probability. Or maybe it got unlucky. Or maybe we were just wrong.

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23) But in general, the patterns are: a) huge upside b) really cool project c) great team d) partnership potential We do a lot of judgement calls. Like: [A] $1b of burns, $5b daily volume [B] 0 revenue, $300m incentivized daily volume B has > mkt cap than A.

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24) If you are in the US, this might feel uncomfortable or wrong. If you're elsewhere, you might be thinking 'obviously'. But we're all one world. Anyway I wrote that, reflected, and started getting longer [A].

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25) FTT, SRM, and SOL are in their own category. There are projects we invest in. Projects we support. And then projects we'll fight like hell for. We don't believe in them because we're long. We're long because we believe in them. When we have conviction -- we buy.

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26) but this is NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. Even when we really care -- sometimes tokens go down. We can't stop that. We'll do what we can, and focus on the long term building. Not on the short term price action.

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27) LIKE SERIOUSLY THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. I said that a few times but that's not enough. This is not investment advice. I don't know what will go up or down. I *really* don't know short term. That depends on what you all do: whether you buy or sell.

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28) for NOT TRADING ADVICE, see here:

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@AlamedaTrabucco

Given that Alameda is a *trading* company first and foremost, I thought I’d share some thoughts on how we think about trading (in contrast to Sam’s thread about how we think about investing longer-term). twitter.com/SBF_FTX/status…

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