So has Trump at 16% to win the electoral college.
Betting markets more like 35%.
which do you believe?
FWIW I'd buy a LOT of Trump @ 16%. Seems way too low given how wacky 2020 is.
(Though def < 50%! 35% doesn't sound crazy to me.)
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apparently he takes 538 over prediction markets: twitter.com/natesilver538/
happy to buy from you at 20% if you want :)
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Another thing that doesn't make any sense about betting markets is that their state-by-state odds are very close to 538's projections but their national projections are quite different. electionbettingodds.com
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Would snap 30%. 16% is nonsense especially considering how odds developed on last elections. Trump has his strong plays prepared for last weeks.
I'd love to buy at 20 as well, but he's not allowed to bet on his models
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