So has Trump at 16% to win the electoral college.
Betting markets more like 35%.
which do you believe?
FWIW I'd buy a LOT of Trump @ 16%. Seems way too low given how wacky 2020 is.
(Though def < 50%! 35% doesn't sound crazy to me.)
Conversation
Replying to
apparently he takes 538 over prediction markets: twitter.com/natesilver538/
happy to buy from you at 20% if you want :)
Quote Tweet
Another thing that doesn't make any sense about betting markets is that their state-by-state odds are very close to 538's projections but their national projections are quite different. electionbettingodds.com
Show this thread
6
1
15
easy bet for them if they actually believe that Trump only has 16%
2
He addressed this yesterday on Twitter. Something about betting markets being comprised of unsophisticated political minds way less important than his own fine-tuned intellect.
Personally I'm not convinced he'll be any more useful this election cycle.
2
betting markets would almost certainly be more accurate than any alternative ainec
1
That's not necessarily true, though -- for instance, you can imagine that OI is low enough that really informed people might not know/care to bet. Can also imagine a pretty sweeping pro-Trump bias in the kind of people with access/desire to trade there, given that.
1
5
Show replies
Will be interesting to see how the betting markets move the day of the election. I assume will keep the order book open until the markets expire.
1
2
This Tweet was deleted by the Tweet author. Learn more
Show replies