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1) some thoughts on the 2020 US presidential election:

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I'm 15% @ 85%, size up (i.e. I will buy as much as I can at 15%, and sell as much as I can at 85%, of either candidate) that's what I feel strongly about--that claims outside of 15%-85% are crazy.

7:16 PM · Sep 23, 2020Twitter Web App

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and

@sfb_alameda I'm guessing you follow fivethirtyeight from time to time. They seem to have very high conviction on biden (75%- 90% odds). you agree with them?