Conversation

SBF
@SBF_FTX
Replying to
@SBF_FTX
9) Many of the food tokens don't make any sense in terms of long-term fundamentals. Eventually they run out of additional tokens to give you for agreeing to hold their token. That doesn't mean they always go down! Sometimes the short-term tokenomics and hype win.
2
44
SBF
@SBF_FTX
10) Sometimes you can get a 10x from that. But _long_ term, most will fail if they don't have any fundamental backing. And most don't have any. But some do.
1
49
SBF
@SBF_FTX
12) (It's not the only one with some fundamentals -- if you read @bluekirbyfi's twitter you'll probably have a guess at another one. Few. Am I doing this right?)
5
63
SBF
@SBF_FTX
13) And one of the great things about coins with good fundamentals, is that you can stare at tokenomics and hype in the face and say "so fucking what". At some point nothing else matters.
1
33
SBF
@SBF_FTX
14) In an extreme case, if USDC is trading at $0.75 and the redemption process still works, you can buy it, and that's a good trade, because you can redeem it for $1. Few coins are that clear. But you can try.
1
26
SBF
@SBF_FTX
15) Now this only matters if you can hold long enough to get to the long term, or if enough people realize this that the long term is realized in the short term. And be careful: if you disagree with the market, are you sure it's the market that's wrong?
2
44
SBF
@SBF_FTX
16) But anyway, I see a lot of people talking about how to value things longer term, and by and large they say reasonable things. But sometimes they say things that seem to miss the point a bit.
1
21
SBF
@SBF_FTX
17) If something really is going to be revolutionary, and that's not priced in yet, maybe it's tokenomics are besides the point. If something has tons of hype and no circulating supply, maybe its fundamentals don't really matter short term.
3
46
SBF
@SBF_FTX
18) I've felt that way a few times about tokens. FTT and SRM, obviously; also BTMX, HT, SXP, and RUNE at various times, along with a few equity investments. And maybe a few more, but those I'm not quite done buying yet.
10
119
Sinsecato
@Sinsecato
Replying to
@Sinsecato
and
@SBF_Alameda
Price predictions/valuations are hard. Buying something you think is most likely overvalued in FD terms just because you think it may pop shorter term (before wave of supply hits) is often (IMO) not the best bet, with so many other projects on the table
1
Show replies
Martin Köppelmann 🇺🇦
@koeppelmann
Replying to
@SBF_FTX
and
@SBF_Alameda
a core question will be - why would future LPs give a cut to Sushi when they can do the same things (at least for now) on Uniswap without giving up a cut. So current fees are pretty pointless for fundamentals. It is all about whether this new community can innovate.
1
6
10xray
@10xray
Replying to
@SBF_FTX
and
@SBF_Alameda
I've learned that it can pay off to be a degen and risk tiny amounts of capital to play with the new shiny un-audited product. And hey, if It's interesting, start scaling capital in as it becomes more legitimate. Basically a crypto version of:
Quote Tweet
Chamath Palihapitiya
@chamath
Investing 101: if you want an easy test to figure out which public companies you may what to invest in, do the following: Settings —> Screen Time —> See All Activity —> Week If you’re not willing to own the products you use, then what?
John Todaro
@JohnTodaro1
Replying to
@SBF_FTX
and
@SBF_Alameda
Agree with much of this thread, but there are competing narratives. 1) Exchange tokens can offer some legitimately attractive fee generated "cash flows" to holders. 2) But, because these can be valued more absolutely, the hype is never quite as high as say a base layer project.
1