Conversation

SBF
@SBF_FTX
Replying to
@SBF_FTX
8) And for long-term fundamentals, I don't know--it probably has more than XLM and less than most exchange tokens. But those two have about the same market cap, so idk, it's kind of hard to say.
13
33
SBF
@SBF_FTX
9) Many of the food tokens don't make any sense in terms of long-term fundamentals. Eventually they run out of additional tokens to give you for agreeing to hold their token. That doesn't mean they always go down! Sometimes the short-term tokenomics and hype win.
2
44
SBF
@SBF_FTX
10) Sometimes you can get a 10x from that. But _long_ term, most will fail if they don't have any fundamental backing. And most don't have any. But some do.
1
49
SBF
@SBF_FTX
12) (It's not the only one with some fundamentals -- if you read @bluekirbyfi's twitter you'll probably have a guess at another one. Few. Am I doing this right?)
5
63
SBF
@SBF_FTX
13) And one of the great things about coins with good fundamentals, is that you can stare at tokenomics and hype in the face and say "so fucking what". At some point nothing else matters.
1
33
SBF
@SBF_FTX
14) In an extreme case, if USDC is trading at $0.75 and the redemption process still works, you can buy it, and that's a good trade, because you can redeem it for $1. Few coins are that clear. But you can try.
1
26
SBF
@SBF_FTX
15) Now this only matters if you can hold long enough to get to the long term, or if enough people realize this that the long term is realized in the short term. And be careful: if you disagree with the market, are you sure it's the market that's wrong?
2
44
SBF
@SBF_FTX
16) But anyway, I see a lot of people talking about how to value things longer term, and by and large they say reasonable things. But sometimes they say things that seem to miss the point a bit.
1
21
SBF
@SBF_FTX
17) If something really is going to be revolutionary, and that's not priced in yet, maybe it's tokenomics are besides the point. If something has tons of hype and no circulating supply, maybe its fundamentals don't really matter short term.
3
46
SBF
@SBF_FTX
Replying to
@SBF_FTX
19) But when I have conviction on something, I've learned to buy. I guess it's kind of a stupid lesson that shouldn't be necessary, but sometimes it is.
12
80