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Basically my point is: I think in addition to one being a choice and the other forced, you _also_ feel like one is more "bad" than the other, even if they're comparable risks. I'd guess you fucking believe in SNX so it doesn't feel like a "gamble" it feels like a strategic play

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I mean I don’t think either of them are bad, I’m in the Sushi trade as well and I’m doing a farm and hold strategy, it’s a good trade imo. But I wouldn’t put 10% of my aum into it, I mean maybe in a few days it gets better but first mover yield farming induces massive tail risk.

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what % of them go under in the first day?

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Haha like 50% or something. Based, Yam, that scam from yesterday with the faked approval.

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Go under is not accurate have a contract issue would be more accurate. But it’s a matter of time before there is a catastrophic loss imo.

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true but almost none went under in the first day or two. which generally isn't that comforting, but at 40% APR 1 day matters a lot

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Lol every second this doesn’t blow up this trade looks more and more like genius so...

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Heh yea so I would put the odds of it blowing up on day 1 at like 0.50% or something? IDK, maybe that ballpark. So it could! But odds are against it.

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But like I can't actually justify that, it's just a guess, and maybe you've read the code and are terrified ;P What I can actually say is just that I think that like comparing the daily interest rate to the daily blowing out rate is the right thing to do

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Taleb made a lot of money exploiting asymmetric risk like that. I don’t quite think the risk of smart contracts defaulting is properly priced into the daily interest rate.

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rates of which protocol? Sushi or like Compound/Aave?

10:38 AM · Aug 29, 2020Twitter Web App

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Any protocol. at least taleb had black scholes Merton Option pricing model (which was also based on false assumptions like independent and standard normally distributed price changes) but we have currently no model to quantify the risks involved in smart contracts defaulting.

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Yeah agreed on that, though you can ballpark it. I think the world is currently ballparking Sushi as ~50%/day to explode and Maker as ~0%/day, and both of those seem wrong to me.