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I’m not sure that this analogy holds since I’m both escrowed as a core contributor and escrowed via staking rewards for at least another year. So even if I wanted to diversify to a “reasonable” level I couldn’t. Plus I’m also realistically liquidity trapped.

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Oh yeah totes agree, you don't have a choice there. But when you wake up each day, how bad does it feel that you are forced to have that position? (Or does it even feel bad? Maybe it feels like you trust your instincts?) vs how you'd feel if you had 1/4 as much in sushi

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Replying to

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Basically my point is: I think in addition to one being a choice and the other forced, you _also_ feel like one is more "bad" than the other, even if they're comparable risks. I'd guess you fucking believe in SNX so it doesn't feel like a "gamble" it feels like a strategic play

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I mean I don’t think either of them are bad, I’m in the Sushi trade as well and I’m doing a farm and hold strategy, it’s a good trade imo. But I wouldn’t put 10% of my aum into it, I mean maybe in a few days it gets better but first mover yield farming induces massive tail risk.

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what % of them go under in the first day?

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Haha like 50% or something. Based, Yam, that scam from yesterday with the faked approval.

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Go under is not accurate have a contract issue would be more accurate. But it’s a matter of time before there is a catastrophic loss imo.

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true but almost none went under in the first day or two. which generally isn't that comforting, but at 40% APR 1 day matters a lot

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Lol every second this doesn’t blow up this trade looks more and more like genius so...

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Heh yea so I would put the odds of it blowing up on day 1 at like 0.50% or something? IDK, maybe that ballpark. So it could! But odds are against it.

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Replying to

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But like I can't actually justify that, it's just a guess, and maybe you've read the code and are terrified ;P What I can actually say is just that I think that like comparing the daily interest rate to the daily blowing out rate is the right thing to do

8:54 AM · Aug 29, 2020Twitter Web App

Replying to

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Agreed but I think the blow up rate is likely higher than .05% even on day 1, and it will take some discipline to exit 24h later when everything looks fine. We reviewed this code and it’s complex. Look at xSNX last week, lots of eyes on it, but

still found an edge case.

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Chef Nomi #SushiSwap

Replying to

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Agree. Complex code written by a chef has a high chance of blowing up. If you find any issue, please dm.

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Replying to

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Taleb made a lot of money exploiting asymmetric risk like that. I don’t quite think the risk of smart contracts defaulting is properly priced into the daily interest rate.

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Replying to

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rates of which protocol? Sushi or like Compound/Aave?

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