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and

Yeah kelly implies really large bet sizes, also often it's too conservative (!!!)

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and

So I agree that kelly is best in its class at *median* outcome but it's obviously not at *mean*. Why is median what you're maximizing for?

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and

ya you have to include those still though kelly doesn't maximize mean

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and

nope, math be weird if you have a 50/50 coin that pays out 1.01 : 1, then lim_n-->inf [ (1/2)^n * 2.01^n ] = inf, and in fact is mean maximizing even though lim_n-->inf [(1/2)^n] = 0, e.g. its median outcome is 0.

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probability theory ideally

8:49 AM · Aug 29, 2020Twitter Web App