SBF@SBF_FTXReplying to @tbr90 and @brttbYeah kelly implies really large bet sizes, also often it's too conservative (!!!)3:24 AM · Aug 29, 2020·Twitter Web App1 Quote Tweet5 Likes
SBF@SBF_FTX·Aug 29, 2020Replying to @tbr90 and @brttbSo I agree that kelly is best in its class at *median* outcome but it's obviously not at *mean*. Why is median what you're maximizing for?
Brett@brttb·Aug 29, 2020Replying to @SBF_FTX @SBF_Alameda and @tbr90This is kind of my point. Odds of 10-20:1 are not uncommon in crypto, but it feels like the magnitude of this skews the subjective modelling of win rate. After seeing a YFI you can’t unsee it.1
SBF@SBF_FTX·Aug 29, 2020Replying to @brttb and @tbr90er which direction are you arguing--that upside is huge or that we overestimate it?1